Forecasting the Tourism Demand of Türkiye Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Approach

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Modelling and forecasting the tourism demand is an important research area for both public and private sectors for planning the travel and accommodation facilities in advance. Therefore, modelling the tourism demand in terms of the number of tourists is an active research area for both tourism, economics and financial studies. In this work, the tourism demand of Türkiye is modelled using artificial neural network methods. The tourism demand represented by the number of tourists is taken as the dependent variable while the past values of the number of tourists is considered as the inputs. Furthermore, the tourism revenue is also modelled employing the same autoregressive artificial neural network approach. Monthly data in the period of 2008-2022 which are taken from the official sources are used as the research material. The multilayer perceptron type artificial neural networks with nonlinear neural activation functions is selected for the accurate modelling of the highly seasonal tourism demand data. The modelling and forecasting results show that the developed artificial neural network reaches high accuracy for modelling both the tourism demand and the tourism revenue such that the coefficient of determination of the developed artificial neural network models have the values of R2=0.949 and R2=0.840 for the tourism demand and tourism revenue, respectively, providing an objective assessment of the accuracy of the developed models. It is concluded that the multilayer perceptron based artificial neural network methods can be used to model the tourism demand therefore this type of modelling is expected to be helpful for tourism planners by providing them the tourism demand forecast in advance.

Perspectives of School Managers and Teachers on the Implementation of the Eight-Hour Policy in Selected Schools of Ndola, Zambia

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The standard working hours for civil service workers as stipulated by the International Labor Organization (ILO) in most countries is 8 hours. The eight hour work day policy has been enacted in the Labour Laws of Zambia as a guide for employers and employees. Recently, teachers were also mandated to follow this policy as they are part of the public service. However, this policy has been criticized by some teacher unions and the teachers themselves. The Zambia National Union of Teachers (ZNUT) called on the government to implement the eight hour policy for teachers to promote effective teaching. On the other hand, the National Union of Public and Private Educators (NUPPEZ) executive president said that the eight hour policy in its current form was  retrogressive to teachers. He further urged the Ministry of General Education to seriously engage the teacher unions to help look into the effective handling of the policy by both administrators and teachers alike. Therefore, this clearly shows that the eight hour policy has been received with mixed feelings by the teaching fraternity.

A sample of 40 participants drawn from three public primary schools and three public secondary schools was purposively selected and interviewed. The sample comprised teachers and head teachers. The study was mainly qualitative in nature and used a descriptive design. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data. The study revealed that of the six schools that were sampled, only two schools strongly supported the introduction of the eight-hour policy. Two schools were against the policy while the other two schools expressed mixed feelings. Generally, a large number of teachers felt that the policy was inimical to the interests of teachers. The study recommended inter alia that the Ministry of Education should improve infrastructure in schools such as staffrooms where teachers can prepare their work and relax in a conducive environment for eight hours.

Impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Vietnamese Legislation on Female Employment Law: The Issues Raised in Improving the Law Governing the Employment of Female Workers

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) influences all aspects of global life, including the employment of female workers. The problem of creating jobs for female workers is becoming increasingly difficult due to the fiercer competition on the job market as a result of the influx of foreign workers into the national market, the increased demand for skilled labor, and the substitution of artificial intelligence (AI) and robots for low-skilled jobs. The Industrial Revolution 4.0 has a significant impact on the job market of female workers due to its technological characteristics, such as the unemployment of female workers in a number of new occupations and their lack of adequate skills. In order to ensure sustainable employment for female workers, the completion of the law on the employment of female workers is a necessary and objective concern for every nation, including Vietnam calling for special consideration. Consequently, the paper focuses on elucidating the current state of Vietnam’s law on female employment as well as the effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on the improvement of Vietnamese legislation on female employment. The author proposes some improvements to the law governing the employment of female workers in the near future.

Some Difficulties In Writting Skills of English Majored Freshmen at Tay Do University, Vietnam

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There is no denying that English is playing an important role in most regions of the world and is playing a leading role in the education and future careers of students. Moreover, writing skills are one of the indispensable skills in the developing society in general and in the integration process of Vietnam in particular. However, in the learning process, English learners, in general, the English major students of Tay Do University in particular face many obstacles in mastering writing skills. Therefore, the study “Some difficulties in writing skills of English majored freshmen at Tay Do University” is conducted to identify the challenges facing freshman students. The survey participants are 45 students randomly selected from class A, B, and C majoring in English Language Course 15. The survey tool used to collect the data is the questionnaire. The study will identify the challenges in writing faced by English majored freshmen at Tay Do University such as vocabulary, grammar, and background knowledge.

Principal Leadership in the Al-Qur’an Tahfizh Program (Multicase Study at Al-Muhafizhah Middle School Blitar and Sunan Gunung Jati Tulungagung Middle School)

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This study aims to find answers to three fundamental questions; 1) How is the leadership of the principal in defining the vision and mission of the tahfizh al-Qur’an program?; 2) How is the leadership of the school principal in mobilizing school members to carry out the tahfizh Al-Qur’an program?; 3) How is the leadership of the school principal in controlling the tahfizh Al-Qur’an program at SMP Al Muhafizhah Blitar and SMP Sunan Gunung Jati Tulungagung? This research used a qualitative approach with a case study type at SMP Al-Muhafizhah Blitar and SMP Sunan Gunungjati Tulungagung. Sources of informant data, events, locations and documents both primary and secondary. Data collection techniques with participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentation. Data analysis using Huberman data analysis techniques. While checking the validity of the data is done through peer discussions, triangulation of data sources and triangulation of methods. Research result; 1) The leadership of the school principal in defining the vision and mission of the Al-Qur’an tahfizh program is an affirmation of historical reasons, community aspirations, character, characteristics of excellence and competitiveness of schools as Islamic educational institutions; 2) The leadership of the school principal in mobilizing school members to implement the tahfizh program is carried out using an awareness, participatory and delegative approach by prioritizing a collaborative work system; 3) The leadership of the school principal in controlling the Al-Qur’an tahfizh program is carried out using a model of supervision, evaluation and problem solving using a participatory evaluation approach, as well as coaching programs using a delegative approach. The results of the research strengthen Mulyasa’s concept that leadership is the ability to direct, mobilize and foster members of the school organization to achieve common goals. Strengthening the concept of Selznik’s leadership function, namely defining vision and mission, maintaining organizational integrity and control. Strengthen Blanchard’s leadership concept of participatory and delegative approaches in the relationship between leaders and subordinates.

Islamic Boarding School Innovation to Improve Madrasah Competitiveness (Multi Case Studies at MTsN 2 City of Kediri and MTsN 2 Kediri)

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This study aims to find answers to three fundamental questions; 1) How is the madrasah pesantren innovation program in increasing the competitiveness of madrasas in MTsN 2 Kediri Regency and MTsN 2 Kota Kediri?; 2) How is the implementation of Islamic boarding school innovations in increasing the competitiveness of madrasas in MTsN 2 Kediri Regency and MTsN 2 Kediri City?; 3) How do you evaluate the innovation of madrasah boarding schools in increasing the competitiveness of madrasas at MTsN 2, Kediri Regency and MTsN 2, Kediri City? This study uses a multi-case qualitative approach at MTsN 2 Kediri Regency and MTsN 2 Kediri City. Sources of data come from informants, events, locations and both primary and secondary documents. Data collection techniques with participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentation. Data analysis used Huberman’s interactive data analysis technique. While checking the validity of the data is done through peer discussions, triangulation of data sources and triangulation of methods. Research result; 1) The innovation program is the formulation of policies for the establishment of Islamic boarding schools, setting goals and formulating programs for the realization of Islamic boarding schools; 2) Implementation of Islamic boarding school innovations is the establishment and management of madrasah boarding schools according to the system adopted; 3) An evaluation of the innovations of madrasah boarding schools is carried out by madrasa managers, pesantren managers and guardians of students to obtain information related to the implementation, results and expectations of madrasah pesantren managers and users. The results of the research reinforce Rogers and Milles’ concept that madrasah pesantren innovation is pursued through planning, adoption, implementation and evaluation. Reinforcing Kenedy’s findings, that the ideal innovation in madrasah Islamic boarding schools is implementing a combined strategy of Power Coercive, Rational Empirical, Normative-Re-Educative strategies. The results of the study also offer a new understanding that the kiai element as the highest leadership, caretaker and teacher of the pesantren can be replaced by the head of the madrasa and the ranks of the pesantren teachers.

An Assessment of the Implications of Boko Haram Insurgency on Socio-Economic Development in North-Eastern Nigeria

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The crises of Boko Haram insurgency going on since 2009 in the Lake Chad Basin affects the livelihood system and relationships of people and communities in the region. Almost every sector is affected by the atrocities of the Boko Haram group, and governmental efforts to end it is still not enough as the miscreants are still launching attacks of different sorts in some communities. This paper examined the implications of Boko Haram insurgency on socio-economic development in North-Eastern region and utilised secondary data to come up with findings. The paper reveals that the crises have crumbled the economy of the region to the extent that farmlands are deserted due to fear of attack or improvised explosive devices. Food and non-food productions in the region have drastically reduced. Market places loses huge opportunities of exchange for goods especially with international marketers and southern businesspersons. It has also reduced effectiveness and efficiency of financial institutions like banks. Thus, it was concluded and recommended that no meaningful development will take place in the region without meaningful and sustainable peace, and that if the security and peace is not restored in the region, the whole country’s economy will continue collapsing. More so, the crisis is continue placing North-East as the most economic backward area, in addition to other underdevelopment challenges associated with the crises. In places where security has improved such as state capitals, banks should be asked to increase their hours of operation, open additional branches and ensure the availability of adequate staff to promote economic activities in the region. The aid organisations working in the region should improve their supports around agricultural and entrepreneurship based projects and programmes, as this will continue to boost the economy of the area.

Planning for Principal Supervision in Improving the Performance of Educators and Education Personnel (Multisite Study at SMPIT Ar Rahmah Pacitan and MTs Al Anwar Pacitan)

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This study aims to analyze and discover the principal’s supervision plan in improving the performance of educators and education staff at SMPIT Ar Rahmah Pacitan and MTs. Al Anwar Pacitan. This study uses a qualitative approach, a type of case study with a multi-case design. Data collection techniques using in-depth interviews, non-participant observation and documentation. Data analysis uses the Miles Huberman model, namely data compaction, data presentation, verification and drawing conclusions. Data were analyzed from single case and cross case data. Test the validity of the data through credibility, transferability, dependability and confirmability. The results showed that planning for supervising school principals in improving the performance of educators and education staff, namely the principal preparing supervision programs, setting supervision objectives, compiling supervision schedules, setting supervision targets, setting budgets, and forming supervising supporting teams, establishing procedures and conducting outreach . The formal finding of this research is to develop the planning theory developed by Louis A. Allen. The planning theory developed by Louis A. Allen does not include: setting targets, forming a supervision team, and program outreach. All findings that are not included in the planning theory developed by Louis A. Allen are novelty findings.

The Influence of Situational Leadership, Work Environment and Innovativeness on Teachers’ Job Satisfaction in Elementary School

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The study aims to identify the effect of Situational Leadership, Work Environment, and Innovativeness on teachers’ job satisfaction in Tigapanah Subdistrict, Karo District. The research uses the quantitative through Path Analysis model with 146 Teachers as respondents in 24 schools that located in Tigapanah Subdistrict. Google Form is used in this research to gather the data. before spread the questionnaire, Validity test and Reliability test is done beforehand. In analysis test, first step is the analysis requirements Test, it is containing normality test using Skewness and Kurtosius test and Linearity test. The findings in this research are the positive direct effect of Situational Leadership on Innovativeness, the Work Environment has positive direct effect on Innovativeness, there are the direct positive effect of Situational Leadership, Work Environment and Innovativeness on Teachers’ Job satisfaction in Tigapanah Subdistrict, Karo District. Situational Leadership and Work Environment have positive indirect effect on Teachers’ Job Satisfaction Through Innovativeness.

Some Difficulties in Learning Speaking of English Majored Freshmen at Tay Do University, In Vietnam

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“Some difficulties in learning speaking of English majored freshmen at Tay Do University” is performed to the purpose of this study help student recognize their problem in speaking English. The participants of this study are the English majored freshmen course 13 (2018-2022) from Bachelor of English class at Tay Do University. The instruments are used in this study are questionnaire and interview. The researcher will collect student’s’ information through questionnaire and paper interview question. The expected outcomes will show the difficulties in learning speaking of English-majored freshmen at Tay Do University.