The Impact of New-Generation Free Trade Agreements on the Sustainable Export of Vietnam’s Key Agricultural Products: Evidence from a Gravity Model

Vietnam has participated in an extensive network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), including new-generation ones such as the CPTPP, EVFTA, and RCEP. These agreements expand market access but also introduce complex regulatory standards. This study examines the effects of major FTAs on Vietnam’s key agricultural exports – rice, pangasius fish, mango, lemon, and star apple – during 2005–2024. A gravity model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method is used to address data heteroskedasticity and zero-trade values. The analysis combines product-level export data with partner-country economic indicators and the timing of FTA enforcement. Results show that FTA impacts differ markedly across agreements and commodities. Regional frameworks such as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and the RCEP are associated with statistically significant positive effects on some products, particularly pangasius and mango. In contrast, high-standard FTAs such as the EVFTA and CPTPP show negative or insignificant coefficients for rice and pangasius exports. Overall, the findings indicate that tariff preferences alone do not ensure export growth. The realized effects depend on product characteristics and the ability to meet technical and quality standards. The study adds empirical evidence to understanding how Vietnam’s agricultural trade responds to new-generation FTAs.