Estimation of Granger-Causality in the Nigerian Cattle Market

The research investigated Granger-causality in the Nigerian cattle market. The test was conducted for 45 market pairs. Multi-stage and simple random sampling techniques were used to select two states each from five out of the six geo-political zones in Nigeria, except South-East zone which was not represented due to unavailability of data. A total of ten states were selected. Data were analysed using Granger-Causality test. The Granger causality test result showed less than half of the 45 market pairs studied indicated presence of causality, such that, 16 pairs showed unidirectional price causations and two pairs showed bi-directional price causations, which implies poor price transmission system. Only one market (Zamfara) showed strong links to the other markets. The prices also tended to be supply-driven rather than demand driven, as shown by the prices of Edo, Cross-River and Osun. There is need to improve on the market information system and transportation and infrastructural facilities in order to ensure a good and efficient market and pricing system in the country.