Mathematical Modeling of Dengue Cases in Region XI Philippines

Dengue was recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2023 as a prominent arthropod-borne viral illness and poses a significant global health threat. This study focuses on Region XI in the Philippines, where dengue is alarmingly prevalent, and in forecasting dengue cases, it employs the ARIMA model. The study, spanning from January 2019 to August 2023, integrates univariate exploratory data analysis and statistical methods to understand the patterns and trends of dengue cases. The ARIMA model, specifically (0,0,1) with a nonzero mean, the candidate model, was identified and utilized from RStudio through coefficient tests of AIC values. The forecasting results predict a decline in dengue cases over the next 16 months. The normality test of residuals and Q-Q plot affirm the model’s reliability. A significant test using the two-sample t-test demonstrates a substantial difference between actual and forecasted values. In conclusion, this study provides crucial insights for public health planning, community intervention, and future research. The ARIMA model’s successful application emphasizes the need for refined dengue control and mitigation strategies in Region XI. The results underscore the urgency of collective efforts to minimize dengue transmission and address the challenges posed by this prevalent and impactful disease.